Will Gold Reach $3,000 per Ounce?

Central banks purchased a net 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2023 (World Gold Council data), the second consecutive year above 1,000 tonnes — more than double the 20-year average of 450 tonnes. The primary buyers are China (225+ tonnes/year), Poland (130 tonnes in 2023), Singapore, India, and Turkey. This demand is structurally driven by reserve diversification away from dollar assets following Russia's SWIFT exclusion, which demonstrated the political risk of dollar-denominated reserves.

Gold's 'fear premium' has expanded structurally. Active armed conflicts include Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, and multiple African theaters. US-China Taiwan Strait tensions remain elevated. Geopolitical risk indices (GPR Index) are at multi-decade highs. Historically, each major geopolitical escalation adds $50–150 to gold prices, and with multiple concurrent crises, a persistent premium is baked into current pricing.

Despite headline inflation declining from 2022 peaks, institutional memory of 9%+ CPI has made inflation hedging structurally more popular. Real yields (10-year TIPS) remain below long-run averages, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Investment demand from family offices, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds seeking 5–10% gold allocations has been robust since 2022, and portfolios that reduced gold during the 2010s low-inflation era are rebalancing.

Global gold mine production has been essentially flat at 3,600–3,650 tonnes annually since 2018, despite decade-high gold prices. New mine development takes 10–15 years from discovery to production. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) have risen to $1,250–1,350/oz as energy costs and labor costs increased. The 'peak gold' hypothesis — that global mine production has structurally plateaued — is increasingly accepted by industry analysts, creating a tight supply backdrop.

Gold-backed ETFs (SPDR Gold Shares GLD, iShares Gold IAU) saw net outflows of 800+ tonnes in 2022–2023 as rising rates increased the opportunity cost of non-yielding gold. Since late 2025, as rate cut expectations solidified, ETF holdings have reversed: inflows of 200+ tonnes in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Full ETF rebalancing to pre-2022 levels would add equivalent demand of 600–800 tonnes, equivalent to 20–25% of annual mine production.

Annual US fiscal deficits of $1.8T+ (6.5% of GDP) are structurally high for peacetime and are increasing Treasury issuance at the same time the Fed is reducing its balance sheet (QT). Some institutional investors view gold as a hedge against the dollar debasement implied by perpetual deficit spending. Ray Dalio and others have explicitly recommended gold over bonds as a long-term store of value given current fiscal trajectories.

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情報源: Goldman Sachs Commodities Research, March 2026

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情報源: World Gold Council Annual Outlook, 2026

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情報源: JPMorgan Global Research, February 2026

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情報源: Bloomberg Intelligence Metals Analysis, Q1 2026

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情報源: Citigroup Metals Desk, March 2026