B
₿cryptoEnds 4mo

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Yes4.5%
95.5%No
$430K
Total Vol
$7K
24h Vol
$107K
Liquidity
—
24h Change

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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FAQ

What is "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 4.5% and No at 95.5%. This is based on $429,579.8 total volume.
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