B
🏛️politicsEndedRESOLVING

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Yes0.1%
100.0%No
$52.7M
Total Vol
$410K
24h Vol
$2.0M
Liquidity
—
24h Change
Trade SignalS
BUY NO
Direction
42.1%
Edge
100%
ROI
25.0%
Kelly
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$0.00
If No wins
$0.00
Market Signals
5.2
Score
0.00
Momentum
272x
Vol Ratio
Yes
Vol Spike
$3456K
Whale
33%
Consistency

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related Markets

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

0%

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

3%-0.2%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

2%+1.3%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

0%-0.2%

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

0%-3.5%

Correlated Markets

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

independent

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

independent

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

FAQ

What is "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 0.1% and No at 100.0%. This is based on $52,701,004 total volume.
← Markets