B
🏛️politicsEnds 5mo

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes19.5%
80.5%No
$60K
Total Vol
$326
24h Vol
$27K
Liquidity
24h Change

About This Market

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related Markets

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Jover vs. Silva: Match O/U 21.5

100%+50.0%

Jover vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5

0%-50.4%

Jover vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

0%-50.4%

FAQ

What is "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices Yes at 19.5% and No at 80.5%. This is based on $59,861.816 total volume.
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