Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
About This Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Related Markets
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Correlated Markets
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?