B
🏛️politicsEnds 7mo

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Yes16.5%
83.5%No
$151K
Total Vol
$557
24h Vol
$34K
Liquidity
+1.0%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$506.06
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

Related Markets

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

2%+0.4%

Major US official out by April 30?

0%-1.9%

Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?

52%-5.5%

Major US official out by May 31?

40%-3.0%

Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?

1%

Correlated Markets

Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?

same

Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

same

Will there be exactly 3 major space weather events this week?

opposite

Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

same

Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

opposite

FAQ

What is "Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 16.5% and No at 83.5%. This is based on $150,565 total volume.
← Markets