B
₿cryptoEnds 8mo

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Yes14.5%
85.5%No
$659K
Total Vol
$27K
24h Vol
$93K
Liquidity
+1.0%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$589.66
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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FAQ

What is "China x Japan military clash before 2027?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 14.5% and No at 85.5%. This is based on $659,253.7 total volume.
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