📈economyEnds 8mo
US defaults on debt by 2027?
Yes3.8%
96.3%No
$15K
Total Vol
$0
24h Vol
$2K
Liquidity
—
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$2566.67
If No wins
$-100.00
About This Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
FAQ
What is "US defaults on debt by 2027?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 3.8% and No at 96.3%. This is based on $14,788.238 total volume.